To be vaccinated or not to be vaccinated, that is the question…..

There are a lot of people that are still on the fence about getting vaccinated for COVID -19. I get not wanting to put a foreign substance in your body, I wasn’t a fan of the idea either. That said, I decided to get the vaccine and here is why:

1.) As things are right now, there is a very high probability that we all will come into contact with the virus or a variant at some point in our lifetimes.

The vaccine dramatically reduces the chances of developing a serious reaction to the virus. According to one study, the chances of developing a severe allergic reaction to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines was between 0.00025% - 0.001% (Shimabukuro et al, 2021). Bear in mind that allergic reactions are the most serious adverse side effects of the vaccine. There are other serious side effects, but they are very rarely life threatening and have roughly the same probability as an anaphylactic allergic reaction.  

The risk of developing severe symptoms as a result from Covid increases with age (CDC, 2021). According to a public health Canada assessment, fully vaccinated people were 70% less likely to be hospitalized and 52% less likely to die as a result of their illness (Public Health Canada, 2021). As it stands right now, the vast majority of people developing serious reactions to Covid (and variants) are mostly the unvaccinated population, accounting for ~89% of hospitalizations (Public Health Canada, 2021). Break through cases in the vaccinated population generally involve much milder symptoms (CDC, 2021) and make up only 0.6% of current hospitalizations in Canada (Public Health Canada, 2021). Studies also show that vaccinated population transmit the virus at lower rates than the unvaccinated population (Shah et al, 2021).

2.) The pandemic is not going to end anytime soon without action.

Infectious diseases do not go away on their own. Either we recieve the vaccine and manage to stop or slow down the spread of infection with herd immunity, or the virus makes it way through the population causing serious side effects and killing people in the process. Which if recent history is any indicator, would likely primarily affect our vulnerable population. Vaccines have a historically high success rate, for example: Smallpox, one of the deadliest diseases known to man, was eradicated from existence due to vaccines. (World Health Organization, 2021).

3.) The longer it takes to get everyone vaccinated the more time the virus has to mutate.           

The original vaccines were very effective for the strains that were spreading at the time of their development. There are breakthrough cases happening with vaccinated people, which is expected as the vaccine had a 95% efficacy. However breakthrough cases appear to be more common with covid variants (CDC, 2021). It will take time to develop more effective vaccines for the new variants and by that time more variants will likely have emerged. This highlights some foreshadowing into the potential for a cycle that may not end without a strong response from the public to get vaccinated to stop the virus from spreading and mutating through herd immunity.

To add context, mutations can change the behaviour of the virus. For example, new variants might:1.) Cause the virus to spread more easily 2.) Cause more severe illness 3.) Require different treatments 4.) Reduce current vaccine effectiveness (Public Health Canada, 2021). According to Yale medicine new mutations of the COVID-19 virus could very well bring it back, and it may even be stronger than before (Katella, 2021). Take the current delta variant into consideration, from July 22-29 the number of children in the U.S being hospitalized has almost doubled from the previous week (American Academy of Pediatrics 2021). The bulk of this influx is the result of the delta mutation of the Covid virus (CDC, 2021).

4.) The safety data on the vaccines are better than I had expected.

Vaccines in general have pretty good safety profiles as compared to other pharmaceuticals. There are very few vaccines in history that have had serious adverse side effects, unlike pharmaceutical drugs (including over the counter medications) which many people have no issues using. The most severe side effect is related to a anaphylactic allergic response to the vaccine ingredients, this is reported to happen in roughly 2.5 – 11.1 people per million (Shimabukuro et al, 2021). It is thought that these allergic reactions are to the common ingredients typically used to deliver vaccines. So if you had an allergic reaction to other vaccines, then you may also have a reaction to one or more of the covid vaccines. The use of any vaccines should discussed with your physican to rule out any pre-existing potential for additional risk.

There have been reports of myocarditis and pericarditis (inflammation of the heart muscle and the heart lining respectively) following the mRNA vaccines in the adolescent/young adult population, affecting mostly males. Currently it is not clear if this was a result of the vaccine as myocarditis and pericarditis typically happen as a result of various virial infections (including the adenovirus which causes the common cold). The CDC is currently investigating the cause and it is being monitored so the exact number of cases is currently unknown. It is also important to mention that cases of myocarditis and pericarditis are estimated to occur much more often in cases of covid 19 than in post vaccine (Daniels et al, 2021). Additionally, these conditions are generally managed through outpatient treatment and rarely require hospitalization.

The majority of the side effects are mild and due to the body’s immune response like headaches and fatigue, as well as a sore arm from the injection into the muscle. I also did a personal safety assessment by looking at people who were vacciated in my social circle. Millions of people have been vaccinated already, yet, I did not know one person that has had a serious adverse reaction to the vaccine, nor had I heard of one outside of my research.

I hope these points explain my thought process. After much investigation and research, I based my decision using mathematical probabilities to quantify the risks. From the data I collected, the chance of a severe adverse effect from the vaccine was less than 1%, the chance of coming into contact with Covid throughout my lifetime was estimated to be high, and the chance of developing severe symptoms from Covid varied by age group and personal health profile, however, the numbers were significantly higher than 1% for ALL age groups. As an added bonus to protecting myself, I am also protecting my family, my community and leaving this world safer for future generations.

Some additional concerns that I have been asked about are as follows:

THE VACCINE WAS DEVELOPED TOO QUICKLY, CAN WE REALLY BE SURE THAT IT IS SAFE:

This actually is not the case for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Jason McLellan and Barry Graham had been developing the mRNA for ~12 years with the RSV and MERS viruses that share similar characteristics with the covid virus (they all have a spike protein). The technology used in both mRNA vaccines stabilize the spike protein, preventing it from moving from its prefusion state into its post fusion state, the latter of which is known to wreak havoc on the human system (Kramer, 2021). The safety of this technology has been tested with these other two viruses and while the response may not be exactly the same, they provide a pretty good indicator of the human body’s reaction.

WHAT IF THERE ARE LONG TERM SIDE EFFECTS OF THE VACCINE THAT WE DO NOT YET KNOW ABOUT:

Side effects generally happen during your body’s initial immune response. For the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, the mRNA quickly deteriorates in your body. Your immune system begins to develop antibodies fairly soon after your body builds the augmented spike protein, and this process is typically completed within a few weeks of taking the vaccine. Since you are not getting the virus and just a modified ‘locked-in’ spike protein, it is highly improbable that long term side effects will appear outside of the initial immune response. Historical vaccine monitoring has shown that side effects generally happen within six weeks of receiving a vaccine (CDC, 2021). Long term side effects of the covid virus itself is another story. Some viruses have been known to cause long term health problems for some people, only time will tell if this will be the case for Covid.

REFERENCES

American Academy of Pediatrics. (2021). Children and COVID-19: State-Level Data Report. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://www.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/children-and-covid-19-state-level-data-report/

CDC. (2021). CDC COVID Data Tracker. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions

CDC. (2021, August 05). COVID-19 Breakthrough Case Investigations and Reporting. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

CDC. (2021). Possible Side Effects After Getting a COVID-19 Vaccine. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html

Daniels, C. J., Rajpal, S., Greenshields, J. T., Rosenthal, G. L., Chung, E. H., Terrin, M., ... & Big Ten COVID-19 Cardiac Registry Investigators. (2021). Prevalence of clinical and subclinical myocarditis in competitive athletes with recent SARS-CoV-2 infection: Results from the big ten COVID-19 cardiac registry. JAMA cardiology. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2780548

Katella, K. (2021, August 12). 5 Things To Know About the Delta Variant. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/5-things-to-know-delta-variant-covid

Kramer, J. (2021, May 03). They spent 12 years solving a scientific puzzle. It yielded the first COVID-19 vaccines. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/these-scientists-spent-twelve-years-solving-puzzle-yielded-coronavirus-vaccines?loggedin=true

Public Health Canada, (2021, May 28). COVID-19 daily epidemiology update. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

Shimabukuro, T. T., Cole, M., & Su, J. R. (2021). Reports of anaphylaxis after receipt of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in the US—December 14, 2020-January 18, 2021. Jama, 325(11), 1101-1102. Retrieved August 14, 2021 from https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2776557

Shah, A. S., Gribben, C., Bishop, J., Hanlon, P., Caldwell, D., Wood, R., ... & McAllister, D. A. (2021). Effect of vaccination on transmission of COVID-19: an observational study in healthcare workers and their households. MedRxiv. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.03.11.21253275v1

World Health Organization. (2021). Smallpox. Retrieved August 14, 2021, from https://www.who.int/health-topics/smallpox#tab=tab_1